Trump has repeatedly insisted that tariffs are coming on Canada and Mexico, despite both countries seeking to address his stated concerns about illegal border crossings and the smuggling of fentanyl. But the Republican president is also motivated by the idea that tariffs would force other countries to “respect” the United States.

U.S. President Trump said that his administration could impose a 25% tariff on Mexican exports. But will he actually act on his threat?

A brief standoff with Colombia holds important lessons for how future trade conflicts might unfold in the new Trump administration.