And the judgments usually will have little substance because judgment (even “expert” judgment) has been proven in countless studies to be a fundamentally inferior way to forecast.¹ Inferior ...

Expert elicitation and structured judgment methods are essential tools used in various fields to gather insights and make informed decisions based on expert knowledge. These methods are ...

Citations: Braun, Phillip, Ilan Yaniv. 1992. A Case Study of Expert Judgment: Economists' Probabilities Versus Base-Rate Model Forecasts. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. 217-231.

for expert judgment; and, in turn, these professionals agree to act ethically and in good faith. But that arrangement only works when people believe they can trust these institutions to do the right ...

"Shocked," a legal expert said on Wednesday after detailing a new Donald Trump filing in which his "angry" attorneys demanded a stay of the massive civil fraud judgment. MSNBC legal analyst Lisa ...